Saturday, January 4, 2020

ESR Game Plan: AIMS Apac or Sabana REIT or both?

Dear SFFians,

As I have promised my fans and thanks for all your unwavering support to read my blog, I shall pen down my thoughts based on my decade worth of experience dealing with PE funds like ESR and Warburg Pincus, and certainly my last trophy win on banging big on Viva Industrial Trust (which was eventually swallowed by Cambridge REIT and then rebranded as ESR-Reit today). I hope to strike another gold pot this round with ESR's similar move.

For those who want to understand more on ESR, you can refer to their website to read up. In short, ESR is formed through a series of M&A of different founders in different countries to amalgamate to a super logistic fund manager in Asia. Knowing this little history will allow you to understand the co-founders (1 PRC, 2 Angmos) who came from different background, but all their interests are aligned, i.e. to maximize shareholders' returns to them. 

Their game plan shall be to grow their property AUM and earn tons of fees from pools of AUM in Asia Pacific region. In essence, do lots of M&A to extract fees from property management, acquisition & disposals. They have done it for Cambridge and Viva, which are 2nd-tier industrial REITs here. What's left for them in SG are Sabana and AIMS Apac. How about Soilbuild? Maybe later as Soilbuild Group may not be willing to let go of their controlling hands.

Sabana REIT
ESR initially accumulated a small stake in this troubled REIT and wished to take advantage of its poor share price to do their 1st round of M&A in Singapore. However, they faced a major roadblock of not gaining favor from Sabana's shareholders and put this plan on hold while continue to quietly buy more.

However, on 22 May 2019, ESR managed to convince Vibrant Group and successfully acquire approximately 93.8% equity interest in Sabana's manager and approximately 21.4% of the total issued units in Sabana REIT. Vibrant Group should have let this go much earlier and admit their incompetence. ESR’s further acquisition of Sabana REIT units has been done to enhance its income diversification.

During that one year of slow accumulation between the trading price range of $0.38-$0.43, one can roughly estimate ESR's average cost should lie around $0.40-$0.42. Current market price stands at $0.465, which is merely 3% higher, with a trading yield of 6.8% and P/B of 0.82x.

Quartz Capital has called for a merger of these 2 REITs, but why ESR has yet to take action since they have already controlled the manager and being the largest shareholder in the REIT itself?

The probable answer to this would be Sabana has to stay Shari'ah compliant, merging with ESR Reit will lose this status unless the entire property portfolio of ESR is also Shari'ah compliant. Being Shari'ah compliant means complying with Shari'ah investment principles and procedures which are consistent with principles of Islamic law. It also requires general considerations of ethical investing in terms of social responsibility in asset selection and structuring. Business activities relating to conventional financial and insurance services, gaming, non-halal production, tobacco-related products, non-permitted entertainment activities and stock-broking in non-compliant securities are considered to be non-permissible. 

Given this strict compliance, I doubt very much the hypothesis of merging ESR and Sabana will pan out smoothly. I don't see this happening any time soon. If you wish to buy for takeover, it's a low probability game. Buying for 6.8% yield below NAV may just be your best bet to enjoy a not-too-shabby return.

AIMS Apac REIT
On 4th Nov 2019, ESR acquired 26,827,400 units in AIMS APAC Reit at S$1.39 per unit. The married deal increased ESR Cayman Ltd's deemed interest in AA Reit from 5.24% to 9.09%. From SGX website, it stated ESR Cayman holding 10.021%, which ranks them as the 2nd largest shareholder behind Dragon Pacific Assets. I am curious to find out who is this big shareholder and the best I can CSI is Megaworld Corporation founded by Andrew Tan in Philippines. Given that their focus is in Philippines, this investment would likely be an overseas diversification for income play. In other words, they are likely to sell their shares to ESR if the price is right.

ESR's direct interest in Aims Apac Reit is 1.285% with deemed interests of 7.803% from units held by e-Shang Infinity Cayman Ltd and ESR HK Management Ltd.

This is the same trick they deploy when they acquire Cambridge Reit and then Viva Industrial Reit. ESR just have to attain a substantial shareholder status in the Reit itself and then convince other key shareholders to buy over their shares at a premium.

If ESR fails to convince Andrew Tan, they can easily convince George Wang and Chan Wai Kheong to sell. Warburg Pincus folks know these 2 guys, especially Chan Wai Kheong (aka Charlie) who happens to be the former 2nd largest shareholder in Cambridge Reit.

I see this as a high probability game that a M&A shall happen anytime soon to consolidate into a larger industrial REIT for ESR. My game plan is to keep buying near the $1.40 - $1.43 mark as I can see some good premiums should there be a M&A. If you can catch at $1.40, you are sitting on a 7.3% yield with a P/B of 1.06x while waiting for some premiums. With Iran stirring some volatility, I believe there is a good entry opportunity. 

How much will the premium be? I won't know...but based on Viva takeover, it is offered at P/B of 1.26x. Translating that to AIMS Apac Reit, the takeover offer price should be (1.26 x $1.32) = $1.66, representing a potential capital gain of 16% on last closing price of $1.43. Not too shabby though...


Disclaimer: Vested with some groupers (100,000 shares) in Aims. Target final hold to 200,000 shares if price dip with Iran shaking US.
















Sunday, December 29, 2019

End of Year 2019 Self Appraisal

Dear SFFians,

It's the time of the year where we start to ponder deeper on what we have achieved, what we have not and what we wish to do better in the next coming year. For me, I always think in terms of my blessings first (which are aplenty), developmental gaps and surely some practical resolutions to work.

Loved ones around me
  • My baby boy has grown healthily and happily, enjoying his near 2 years old and also his new childcare with lots of learning and positive changes happening now and then. I am more of the easy going type parent who is not so obsessed with his milestones and timings. I believe every kid has his/ her own pace of growth. My priority for him is eat good, play well, learn hard.
  • My wife is also happy to spend couple time with me doing shopping, movies, eating out and meeting her friends etc. It may sound quite normal for a couple to do all these, but once a kid enters into our life, these couple times and activities are gone and sorely missed. I can imagine many parents who are reading this part are nodding their heads. I had a parent friend who has not stepped into a movie theater for 7 years since his first and second sons are born.
  • My parents have been retired for 5 years from their harsh hawker lives and so far, their lifestyles have been good and lived up to their expectations. They are simple folks who try to live healthily, eat simple hawker food and home cooked food, travel around SG, meet/ chat with friends and occasionally go for short trips in Asia. I am glad to support them financially to achieve their desired lifestyles, though not the lavish types which some may aim for.
For Myself
  • Active training work - 2019 has been a busy work year for me as my training jobs are quite a handful to handle, which is certainly welcoming to boost my active income. I worked roughly 80 days so far and made an active income of SGD160k. My loved ones around me always hoped that I can work more actively to earn more $$ for luxuries such as fine dining, tours etc.
  • Health - During my "non-working" days, I am doing strength training in a nearby gym, hopefully I can see some visible results on my muscle mass growth. My weight gain has been around 1.5kg and hope that it's muscle mass gain. I also bought a lot of whey protein and try to fill up my diet with lots of protein, fiber and some carbo to lift more weights. Yes, I have been consistently "gym-ing" for last 3 weeks and hope to make it a habit to go there at least 3x/ week.
  • Investment - 2019 has been not too bad a year for me. My dividend/ bond income amounts to SGD190k. I also did quite a fair bit of trading/ flipping for good fun and testing of my technical price reading, combined with some fundamentals. Since the market has been quite rallying despite all those noises, I managed to extract a realised trading gain of SGD40k. Adding an unrealised profit of SGD120k on my current portfolio as of today, total ROI stands around 17.5%. My wife's portfolio, which I am the portfolio manager, manages to earn higher ROI than mine (because she only has 2 stocks but her ROI is 28%).
  • Expenses - My excel worksheet is tracking all major expenses and I found that 2019 expenses have increased significantly to SGD90k, mainly driven by baby and wife related (50%) and the rest from my parents, car and myself. My family went overseas 2 times this year, my parents went for more trips. In comparison, my 2018 expenses is only SGD65k. Yes, happiness has a price to pay.
So, my total revenue for 2019 works out to be (160k+190k+40k) = SGD390k, this surprises me! I doubt this number will repeat or I will surpass this for 2020 as the training industry is likely to be more challenging. One big reason is that I foresee my active training work will be greatly reduced due to lower requirements/ training budgets from clients.

Deducting my total expenses, my net profit for 2019 will be SGD300k. Yes, I see my cashflows in the format of Income Statement. And this net profit helps to increase my network (equity).

Things I wish to achieve in 2020
    Image result for chinese man gym look
  1. Active work - Given a rather subdued visibility on my freelance training work, I would love to dabble into some other freelance training work outside my field of competence to keep myself socially engaged. The cons of it will be lower training rates. I am too used to SGD2k/day training rate and it's psychologically challenging to do other trainings at SGD500/day or less.
  2. Business - I am currently exploring several businesses to invest in, be it to set up a new business with my friend, buy over existing business or simply get a franchise which is worthy of my time and cost. More importantly, I must like the business to spend my waking hours in. There is no said deadline, just play by my heart and mind to search.
  3. Health - After 1 month of hard gyming, my body physique has shown some improvements, and my strength has increased. I hope to continue this discipline to look better physically, and avoid the trap of falling into the image of an "uncle". Good thing that I have a rather "young" face, just need more muscle curves. 
  4. Investment - The market will correct some day, just a matter of when. I aim to keep and increase my warchest a little, currently at 20%. I aim to lift it up to 25-30% level to standby for corrections. Other than that, keep hunting for value quality buys and keep. When price surges way too much, flip and switch to other value buys. Strategically, keep to my dividend buys to enjoy a higher dividend income. My portfolio should stay around 55% stocks/ 20% bonds/ cash 25%.
  5. Expenses - I aim to lower my total expense to SGD80k, as some one-off items can be removed such as car COE while there will be additional cost of childcare to be added monthly. So net net, it should be achievable.
I hope when I read back this post at end 2020, I have accomplished most of it. Sometimes, too much detailed planning might spoil the fun of life, and I would love a good dose of surprises to play along.

What about yours? Hope you have a great 2019, and a much fabulous 2020!!







Sunday, December 22, 2019

Investment Journey - Part 7 (Insights of Capital Market)

Dear SFFians,

Thanks for your great support on my previous post on Insights of Private Banking (click here), the readership on this post has been phenomenal (To me, a few thousand readership is a lot). I hope you really love to learn about some financial behaviors of the rich. With the millennials being the 2nd/ 3rd generation rich, things will pan out differently. They tend to be "informationally efficient" (or overloaded), highly connected to content (good + bad), confused about market and economics but willing to take excessive risks to prove their worth/ value as good stewards of their parents' fortunes. Not easy task though, those who can manage and grow the family's wealth are those who are really humble to learn and take a patient and holistic approach towards wealth accumulation.

Today's post is more focused on the insights of capital markets, the place where institutional funds or big companies play their game, some call them Big Boys. Indeed, they are big mainly because they can deploy big amount of $$$ to move the market, I call it the elephant guns. Well, there are many different types of elephants, some are trumpeting their moves while some are just plain tactical and quiet not to show their footprints. I usually deal with the quiet elephants, and that's how they make great alpha from their positions.

Capital markets are divided into 2 worlds: Debt and Equity. Debt capital market (DCM) mainly handles bonds, syndicated loans and structured debts etc, while Equity capital market (ECM) handles IPOs, share placement, rights, secondary listing, or any other listed equity instruments. I was serving my time mainly in DCM world, and in this world, you will see and learn how big companies use debt to achieve their goals.

For most people, it's plainly leveraged returns on investment. Simply put, $1 million of equity + $1 million of debt = $2 million capital. A return of 500k would equate to 25% ROC, but 50% ROE less financing costs involved. The disparity in return % is good enough to maximise debt in all situations for any equity investors, especially private equity/ hedge funds. Everytime the funds approach my DCM team for proposal (aka term sheet), the first thing they want is the size of loan, followed by pricing and then other terms & conditions.

If your DCM is aggressive to chase the deal, you will pitch a very high loan amount. Even if you price your loan higher than your competing banks, you will usually win the deal. Funds usually prefer high loans and wouldn't mind paying you a bit more, as their calculated IRR will be the highest when they can commit the least equity.

Banks are not stupid either, well...I can't say for other banks, but my team won't be. If you commit to your clients with high loans, you have to be very confident to sell this loan to other banks as well to "spread" the credit risk. In short, this is loan syndication. If you can't sell the loan and get stuck with a large hold, haha, good luck to you as your credit control department will breathe down your neck to get it pare down within a deadline. Usually when you are desperate to offload the loan, the market will get wind of it and turn more cautious too, therefore dragging the entire credit process or demanding higher fees to get this deal.

Image result for merger and acquisition

If you notice any private equity funds buying a significant stake in some companies, do keep a close watch at their average cost. It doesn't mean the price will shoot up, it means that the fund is preparing for a move, and they do not wish to rock the boat (i.e. move the price too high which makes their IRR less attractive). At this point, they are likely to pre-obtain the bank financing to back this purchase.

If the price doesn't move much or below their desired level, they can announce for a takeover/ merger etc to realize their value in a big way.

For instance, I saw ESR Cayman (backed by Warburg Pincus) chomping up a big sizable position in Viva Industrial, and at the same time, chomping another substantial stake of 10% in Cambridge REIT. I sensed and speculated that they are likely to use Cambridge REIT as their first stop, and then make an advance to acquire Viva Industrial.

In a typical M&A scenario, the Acquirer usually pays a premium to buy over the Target. In this case, it's Viva Industrial. As a result, I bought heavily in Viva (more than 100k) at below $0.80. Within 3 months or less, it shot up to $0.95 when ESR announced the share-swap acquisition. My ROI is easily 19% within 3 months.












Tuesday, December 10, 2019

Investment Journey - Part 6 (Insights of Private Banking)

Dear SFFians,

Due to some great fans' requests to deep dive into my banking career like Private Banking (PB), I would love to share how it shaped and benefited my investment mindset alongside with some of the rich minds investing/"playing" with the market.

Why should we learn from the rich in investing? Sounds very obvious - they are rich for a reason. They walked through the journey of ups and downs, therefore earned their stripe to be rich. Of course, different rich people gotten their wealth through different means - inheritance, lottery, divorce, business, scams, high obscene salaries etc. 

Why do I highlight their sources of wealth? This is critical towards their investment/ trading mindsets and do not be surprised when I list down some observations and learning points.
  • The active PB clients who trade and invest are usually females. Males are usually busy with their jobs/ businesses so they mandated their spouse to take care of their trading needs. That doesn't mean the wives decide all, it means they are the ones calling the relationship managers (RMs) for trades. Certainly, the wives might change their minds as they do listen to RMs' opinions before confirming. They hardly change their directional bets, maybe just the entry points, strike prices or tenor. For instance, if it is dual currency trade, they may lower the strike price and longer tenor after RM told them the volatility of the pair increases. The objective is to avoid being knocked out and suffer depreciation loss.
  • You might think that given their wealth, they may play safe....that's a myth. Some are pretty aggressive to take it big. They often borrow to the max against their investment value to leverage up. For example, borrow JPY to fund their USD/ GBP trade to earn positive carry trade spread. Their downside comes from JPY appreciation. The idea is borrow low cheap currencies and long high yielders. In the past, it's the AUD, NZD and emerging currencies. Carry trades in general are what they love, not just currencies. For bond investments which pay fixed coupons, PB are often given loans at 50-70% loan-to-value against bond investment value to carry. In short - they love leveraging and will use it - short or long term as the borrowing rates are very favorable. Margin trades anyway, the bank can liquidate quickly to recover.
  • PB clients often have few tranches of fixed deposits (FDs) to utilize for different plays. They tend to keep the tenors relatively short like 1 week - 1 month. They will call the RM to rollover their FDs and bargain for higher rates over the screen rate. Sounds very minor, but every basis point counts in the interest income. RMs are equally happy to assist so as to "deepen" the relationship and then cross-sell products to them. When being deployed for investment, some products may require pledging the deposits to secure against the positions.

  • Some PB clients love high yield bonds (c. 5-8% p.a. with a min BB credit rating). Yes, high yield draws them in and lock their investment for 3 -5 years. Besides, they get to leverage up with 50% LTV easily. With the coupon income received, they often re-invest in short term instruments like DCI/ ELN etc. DCI is dual currency investment where you are selling a put on a currency and obtain high yield from your premium. Similarly, you can do it in equity linked notes, i.e. sell put premium on an index or share. DCI + ELN are very good short term cash spinners, once the client get knocked out, they can do the reverse. I learnt from them and keep churning short term cash on weekly DCI/ ELN.
  • Dark side - some clients buy shares in big lots - such as 500k - 1mil in a single non-component stock. RM can see the stock and may front-run the stock by also buying it. Very high chance of a good run-up as these clients are in the business and "hear" news. I witnessed one client who bought 500k in Cosco at $0.35 and within a month, it shot up to near $1, good grief. When you see the RM buying new handbag/ watch, you know where is the source of funding.
Image result for bulldog boss
  • Lastly, PB clients don't pay a lot of fees or will fight to waive off any fees. For instance, the telegraphic transfer fees can amount to 1/8% of the amount transferred. They will squeeze the RM to half the fees, if not, they will threaten to switch to other banks.

I believe there are way much stuff/ nuances from this bunch of clients like hidden accounts, hidden/ hold mail service for some secret mails. If you can imagine, they do all sorts of funny things. I believe it is way more than these above, anyone care to share more?


Friday, December 6, 2019

Investment Journey - Part 5 (Fresh Grad level)

Dear SFFians,

As the chinese saying goes "毕业等于失业", this proverb really stung me big time since I graduated from NTU in 2002. The dreadful job hunting began. Yes, very soon after when doing some temp/ part-time jobs, all job hunting opportunities were slam-dunked by 2003 SARS. Not a great time for banking jobs then, as people are fearful of getting out in public. The good part of it was that I was highly flexible and resilient, just applied any job (admin, sales, temp etc) and took whichever that came along. Beggars don't choose during bad times, I was desperate for any paying jobs. I still vividly remembered taking up a $1500 sales job to sell advertising space and a $1800 job doing investor relations work in an agency. They aren't my ideal jobs, but I really need something to feed myself alive to chase dreams.

One classmate, who had first class honours, even took up a JPMorgan part time job paying $8/hour in operations to put her foot in there first. She had foresight, eventually she proved her worth and earned a permanent role. In job hunting, hunger became the biggest driving force to chase, though I agreed that recruiters don't really hire people who are desperate. Act normal and confident during interviews, not "beggy". 

For fresh graduates who are out there struggling to get jobs, I can totally emphasize. you have spent 3-4 precious years earning your stripe for the paper, with elevated expectations from your parents to grab a fabulous job for the ROI to be realised...time is certainly biting you hard when you are still lost and unwanted. It feels like a hungry polar bear walking on thin ice searching for his fish nowhere in sight, but still have to keep walking aimlessly...

Image result for polar bear hunting"

The hunger wears you down, fatigued and disillusioned. Why me?...After 15 months of temping and doing "undesirable" jobs, I finally had my break to join a local bank's management trainee program. Not the cream of the crop, but at least, that's my best shot after this famine. I grabbed it hard after 6 rounds of interview and became a junior bank officer.

Right after some rotational training across departments, I was posted to Private Banking - which is really the hot and fast growing place to be in. I was tasked to do non-sales work like cleaning up inactive accounts, faxing instructions from clients and keeping records of expiry dates of clients' investments. I remembered supporting 3 relationship managers at one go, torn apart by them at different times to handle all sorts of nonsense from them.

What's worse is not the work itself, another management trainee (Gerald), who was an apple polisher, badmouthed me to the Head of Private Banking, eventually causing me to be called in for a pep talk and concluded that I ain't suitable to be here. Sicko politics...I was really too innocent to fall into such trap. From then, I knew I can't trust anyone, especially fellow batch mates who are playing dirty to gain an edge. Well, at least I got to witness how the rich manage their wealth, leverage up for bigger gains and buying stocks...one rule they play is leverage up to the max for stable yield for short term, and use the excess carry trade net returns for speculative bets. Very shrewd indeed.

I found my days pointless to stay and agreed to switch to another department to "survive". I went to Debt Capital Market which is responsible for loan syndication. That's a much better place where hardwork was rewarded and people are task-oriented and not playing dirty politics behind your back.

I continued to "play" shares and IPO fever is heating the market up. Every single IPO will fly off the shelf and one can easily make 30% to >100% gain in a day if you are balloted successfully. I convince my mother to punt with me, and we celebrated our wins with nice restaurant dinners. I recalled on average, we would win at least twice a month, sometimes once twice a week. Those were the heydays...how nostalgic.







Sunday, December 1, 2019

Special Report: My Thoughts on FLT + FCOT Merger

Hi SFFians,

Bet you have read the mega REIT merger news between Frasers Logistics & Industrial Trust (FLT) and Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT), and I just happen to be heavily vested in both REITs. To complicate the analysis, FLT is looking to acquire 50% interest in Farnborough business park using 100% debt and promise to be DPU accretive. Of course it will be accretive as long as debt is cheap. Well, being on both sides of the fence, does this deal make good sense to me or to either side of the shareholders? Let me walk through the key things of this deal without tackling too much financial details.

FLT (the Acquirer) is proposing to "swallow" FCOT (the Target) by paying cash  ($0.151 per FCOT unit) and FLT unit (1.233 new FLT units per FCOT unit). If the purchase consideration is fully cash funded, the total price would be crystal clear. With an equity swap scenario, the purchase price will be a moving target as FLT unit price is constantly moving too.

With the trading halt being lifted right now, FLT trades at $1.28 and FCOT trades at $1.72. Fixing these moving prices, FCOT unit is worth $1.28 x 1.233 + $0.151 = $1.73 (seems tough to arbitrage the difference). Both the acquirer and target's market capitalization have shot up post announcement, seems like a win-win situation for both shareholders.


Impressive merged statistics for one of the largest S-REITs (from current position #15 and #24 to new position #9) with very rosy occupancy rate and long WALE. Size is really important in the REIT too, as it will have superior bargaining power over lenders, vendors, employees, shareholders and even its tenants. That will the synergistic value increase which is not easily quantifiable until it is extracted successfully integrated. Given that they are the same Fraser family, the cultural fit won't be much of an issue.

Indeed, FLT shareholders should be laughing a fair bit for the accretion to its DPU and NAV, and find no reason to reject this deal. In addition, the portfolio quality, tenant mix etc seem to be marginally better due to a larger base. You can refer to more details in their presentation here.


Well, surely there will be some catch to it. Yes, something not highlighted is the combined gearing. FCOT has a gearing of 28.6%, while FLT gearing is 33.4%. Post merger and debt-funded acquisition, combined gearing shot up to 37% (very near towards the regulatory limit of 45%). This merger consumes cash at FLT's level and adds huge debt for 50% in Farnborough business park. Debt cost is tapering off due to flattening of yield curve, it's definitely a wiser choice to go full debt to maximise DPU accretion.

While I am not an expert in UK business park asset, the face value of this 50% acquisition seems fair and not overly aggressive given the portfolio quality, tenant mix and rental reversion potential. Due to these 2 deals happening simultaneously, it does mask the dangers of increased gearing issue.

My take is that both FLT and FCOT unit-holders stand to gain from this merger and acquisition (though it seems like FCOT is getting the shorter end of the stick), mainly driven by the full debt-funded purchase. Hence, based on their trading prices, there is no apparent advantage to make alpha by buying into any of them right now. Unit-holders can either hold on or either cash out now if they are overly concerned over the much higher gearing to come.



















Friday, November 29, 2019

Special Report: Accordia Golf Trust Offer




Hi SFFians

When I opened my trading screen this morning and saw Accordia Golf jumped by 10% to $0.67, I quickly flipped through the news and found that the trust manager has received a non-binding bid to acquire all its golf courses.

Accordia Golf is a business trust whereby its DPU is subjected to the swings of members and non-members' usage/ visitorships of its golf courses. This is highly seasonal and dependable on weather conditions and time of the year. You hardly see people swarming to golf courses during cold harsh winter, and surely you see more during summer time.

Way before this news, this trust's share price has been very languish, not getting much favour among the dividend investors and also suffered a spate of not so glamorous history. Well, notwithstanding all these, they are investors who don't mind holding this trust to enjoy pretty fat yield. At the previous $0.60 per share, the yield enjoyed was 7.9%. Definitely delicious when all REITs have run up to compress the average yield to 5+%.

Well, given that it is a just a non-binding bid, it means it does not have the obligation to fulfill the offer price unless certain conditions are being met. One thing I understand from my banking days, even if it is non-binding bid, the offeror is already very serious to acquire and has already obtained some financial backing to takeover. It means a lot of pre-work and $$$ have been invested by the offeror. They will have to justify this sunk cost by trying their very best to take over, especially if the offeror is a fund.

Market standard practice is 20-30% premium over the 30-day VWAP. Last 30-day VWAP has been $0.593, translating to a potential offer price of $0.71 - $0.77. Last closing price today stands at $0.70 which is very near to this. Buying at $0.70 still gives you a decent yield of 6.8%, not too shabby. Taking a closer look at the last NAV - $0.76, there is a strong case of pushing the offer price nearer towards P/B ratio of 1. IPO price was $0.97 which is way too high to make a bargain case for the offeror, don't even dream of achieving that.

So realistically speaking, the trust manager is serious in evaluating this bid as the price is attractive enough to convince shareholders to tender their shares. The offer price band is likely to be between $0.75 - $0.80. Anything higher will be super bonus!

Image result for golf course"

Holders and buyers, let's swing this up and hope for a hole-in-one!